David Betz and Jonathan Portes chaired by Stephen Law

Expert in the study of war Professor David Betz and former Treasury official Professor Jonathan Portes discuss the likelihood of civil war in the UK. The thought that civil war in UK is likely over the next ten years is held by 30% of the population according to a recent YouGov poll. It’s also a view shared by outsiders: in October 2025 Elon Musk said on X: ‘Civil war in Britain is inevitable. Just a question of when.’

Betz argues that civil war is likely in Europe and the US, with the UK and France at particular risk. He says the underlying causes include economic woes, feral cities fractured by ethnic identity politics, and urban versus rural tensions resulting from migrant settlement dynamics. He says cities are likely to be turned on by rural populations who view them as having effectively fallen to foreign occupation.

Betz is professor of war in the modern world at King’s College London. His main research interests are insurgency and counterinsurgency, information warfare and cyberwar, propaganda, civil-military relations and strategy. He is author of The Guarded Age: Fortification in the Twenty-First Century.

Portes is professor of economics at King’s College London. He started his career at the Treasury and served as chief economist at the Department for Work and Pensions and chief economist at the Cabinet Office. His books include What Do We Know and What Should We Do About Immigration? and 50 Capitalism Ideas You Really Need to Know.

Discussions are chaired by Dr Stephen Law, philosopher and academic, and author of bestselling introductions to philosophy for adults and children, including The Philosophy Gym. Law is also the editor of the Royal Institute of Philosophy Journal Think and the festival’s major projects director.